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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 14, as Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.48 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.14 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.72 / defence 0.91 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.94 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Draw 18% | Kryvbas KR 16%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Kryvbas KR 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights