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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dynamo Kyiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.66 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.32 / defence 0.98 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.33 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 38%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Dynamo Kyiv 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 2.08 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights