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Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vorskla Poltava beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights