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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Ruh Lviv 0-4 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.80 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 19% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 28%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (36 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights