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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.59 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 17% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 32%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights