🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Polessya 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv beat Polessya 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG and Polessya 2.49 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Polessya landed 2.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.06 / defence 1.37 against Polessya attack 1.42 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 14% | Draw 17% | Polessya 69%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Ruh Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 30%, Polessya 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Polessya's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights