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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 28%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.28 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights