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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Obolon'-Brovar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.55 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 14%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 35%, Obolon'-Brovar 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights