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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.17 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.36 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 20% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 60%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 29%, Kryvbas KR 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights