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Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR finished level at 0-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.88 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kryvbas KR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 35% | Kryvbas KR 37%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Kryvbas KR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.44 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights