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Shock result as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.32 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.63 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 60%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights