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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Shakhtar Donetsk.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Arena Lviv, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 0.70 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).

Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.826 / defence 0.938 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.587 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 0.983. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.587 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Ruh Lviv games / 59 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 17% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.

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