Ruh Lviv 1-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Ukraina Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 3D 5L at Ukraina Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ukraina Stadium this season.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ruh Lviv 1W, Obolon'-Brovar 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ruh Lviv 41% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.040 / defence 1.369 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.829 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 0.977. Data: 32 Ruh Lviv games / 32 Obolon'-Brovar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.08 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.040 / def 1.369 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.829 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.101 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Obolon'-Brovar xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 35% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (4 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 2 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.83x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.42
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.11 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 10W 11D 11L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 14L across 32 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.12 for Obolon'-Brovar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.62 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 22%.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Obolon'-Brovar in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.12 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Obolon'-Brovar have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 0-4 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
3
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Ruh Lviv) and 19% (Obolon'-Brovar) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ruh Lviv and 38% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 31%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 19% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 28%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.28 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.