Ruh Lviv 1-3 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Lviv — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ruh Lviv 1W, Obolon'-Brovar 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 4–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 54% versus Obolon'-Brovar 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 35% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.969 / defence 0.810 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.664 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.026. Data: 46 Ruh Lviv games / 46 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 14%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.92 | Draw 3.03 | Obolon'-Brovar 7.14. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 32% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.27 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.969 / def 0.810 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.664 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Obolon'-Brovar xG
32%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 3 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 52% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 14% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 2 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.66x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 19.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
52%
1.91
33%
3.01
14%
6.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.82
0.55
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
6.94
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
4%
24.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.55 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 17W 21D 8L from 46 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 22L across 46 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 8W 11D 3L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 2W 8D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.54 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 28%.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 21D 8L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 8W 16D 22L in their last 46 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.59 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Obolon'-Brovar have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 0-4 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
3
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 54%, Obolon'-Brovar 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Ruh Lviv and 32% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 32% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.55 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 14%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 35%, Obolon'-Brovar 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.