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Poisson model favours LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face LNZ Cherkasy.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, LNZ Cherkasy have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Ruh Lviv.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

It is worth noting that LNZ Cherkasy have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ruh Lviv 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.943 / defence 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.256 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.203. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Ruh Lviv games / 50 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 7.69 | Draw 4.76 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.52. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.

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