🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.

Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ruh Lviv) versus 0.80 (LNZ Cherkasy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 2 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 55% versus LNZ Cherkasy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 36% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.988 / defence 1.011 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.952 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.066. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Ruh Lviv games / 47 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights