🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Polessya and Veres Rivne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya and Veres Rivne finished level at 1-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 46% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 24%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 36%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights