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Dominant Polessya run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat SK Poltava 4-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.17 xG and SK Poltava 0.77 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Polessya beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against SK Poltava attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 45% | Draw 30% | SK Poltava 24%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 29%, SK Poltava 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

SK Poltava's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights