🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Polessya 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.01 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 35% | Draw 37% | Ruh Lviv 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 42%, Ruh Lviv 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Polessya 1.64 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights