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LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Polessya.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Polessya 0-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.81 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.80 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Polessya fell 0.8 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 33% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 31%, LNZ Cherkasy 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights