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Polessya cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Kudrivka 2-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.22 xG and Kudrivka 0.86 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kudrivka landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Kudrivka attack 0.70 / defence 1.31, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 44% | Draw 29% | Kudrivka 26%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 14%, Kudrivka 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kudrivka's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Polessya 1.43 PPG, Kudrivka 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights