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Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Karpaty 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Karpaty 3-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.84 xG and Karpaty 0.63 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Polessya beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.95 / defence 0.57 against Karpaty attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 37% | Draw 37% | Karpaty 25%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 33%, Karpaty 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Polessya 1.67 PPG, Karpaty 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights