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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Polessya and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Polessya and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.83 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.69 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.77 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 34% | Draw 40% | Kryvbas KR 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 37%, Kryvbas KR 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Polessya 1.64 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights