Polessya 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Polessya have posted 3W 0D 1L at Tsentralnyi Stadion — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Polessya 2.20 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Polessya in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 33% versus Kryvbas KR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 50% | Kryvbas KR 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.085 / defence 1.043 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.320 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.185. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Polessya games / 42 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Kryvbas KR 2.00. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Polessya 50% | Kryvbas KR 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Polessya 1.03 / Kryvbas KR 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.085 / def 1.043 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.320 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Kryvbas KR xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Polessya 1 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 23% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Polessya and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Polessya and Kryvbas KR in?
Polessya (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.08) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
23%
4.33
27%
3.77
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.67
1.63
Kryvbas KR xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
22.14
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Polessya and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Polessya and 1.63 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 1D 3L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 2.08 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Polessya's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 2.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Kryvbas KR's attacking output running into Polessya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.25 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and Kryvbas KR runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Polessya's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, Kryvbas KR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 50%, Kryvbas KR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Polessya and 75% for Kryvbas KR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Polessya's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Polessya's matches and 75% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Polessya and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and Kryvbas KR finished level at 1-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.63 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 50%, Kryvbas KR 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 2.08 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.