🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Polessya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.02 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.73 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.92 / defence 0.64 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 42% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 38%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights