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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Oleksandria 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Oleksandria 1-2 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.99 xG and Zorya Luhansk 2.09 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.61 / defence 1.52 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.12 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 16% | Draw 23% | Zorya Luhansk 61%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.43 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights