Oleksandria 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at CSC Nika this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Oleksandria are significantly better at CSC Nika than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Oleksandria against 0.70 for Veres Rivne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 54% versus Veres Rivne 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 44% | Veres Rivne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.836 / defence 1.291 | Veres Rivne attack 0.677 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.176. Data: 43 Oleksandria games / 42 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 34%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Veres Rivne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Veres Rivne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Oleksandria 1.01 / Veres Rivne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.836 / def 1.291 | Veres Rivne attack 0.677 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne part of?
Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 33% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oleksandria and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.84) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.68x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.11
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.04
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.03 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 12W 18D 13L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 22L across 43 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Oleksandria against 0.91 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.16 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 12W 18D 13L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 12D 22L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Veres Rivne away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.40 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won 0-3 on 20 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
5
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Oleksandria 0-3 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 55%, Veres Rivne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Oleksandria) and 40% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Oleksandria's recent games and 40% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Veres Rivne attack 0.68 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 33% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 34%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Veres Rivne 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.26 PPG, Veres Rivne 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.