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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out SK Poltava 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oleksandria beat SK Poltava 1-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 2.11 xG and SK Poltava 1.15 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SK Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.38 / defence 1.16 against SK Poltava attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 59% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 20%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 67%, SK Poltava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

SK Poltava's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.67 PPG, SK Poltava 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights