Oleksandria 4-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Oleksandria face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Shakhtar Donetsk at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at CSC Nika this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Oleksandria's 30% rate and Shakhtar Donetsk's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 3 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 41% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.80 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / defence 0.989 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.358 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.238. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Oleksandria games / 33 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 0.80 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / def 0.989 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.358 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Oleksandria 4 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (6 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3W.
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.58
24%
4.13
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.46
1.66
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.58
18%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
3%
29.39
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.66 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 10D 12L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 23W 5D 4L from 32 games, 2.31 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 11W 3D 1L from 15 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.09 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 23W 5D 4L in their last 32 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.27 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 33%, Shakhtar Donetsk 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Oleksandria) and 53% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oleksandria's recent games and 53% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Shakhtar Donetsk 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Shakhtar Donetsk 4-3 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.80 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.66 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.36 / defence 0.75, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Oleksandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.