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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.00 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 7 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 46% versus Ruh Lviv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 46% | Ruh Lviv 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.95 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.928 / defence 1.123 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.644 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.341. Data: 43 Oleksandria games / 43 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 34% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 35%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Ruh Lviv 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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