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Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Oleksandria 0-3 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.03 xG and Polessya 1.90 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Polessya attack 1.42 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 22% | Polessya 58%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Polessya 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Polessya's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.85 PPG, Polessya 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights