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Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oleksandria beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.77 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 56% | Draw 26% | Obolon'-Brovar 19%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights