Oleksandria 2-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Oleksandria welcome Obolon'-Brovar to CSC Nika. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Oleksandria have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Oleksandria's 20% and Obolon'-Brovar's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Oleksandria trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Oleksandria 35% | Obolon'-Brovar 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 44% | Obolon'-Brovar 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.04 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.720 / defence 0.873 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.570 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.249. Oleksandria's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Oleksandria games / 23 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 45% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.55. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 20% | Obolon'-Brovar 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 45% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Oleksandria 1.04 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.720 / def 0.873 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.570 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Obolon'-Brovar xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria 2 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 45% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.72x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
45%
2.22
33%
3.00
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.66
0.62
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.34
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.62 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 6W 6D 11L from 23 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 12L across 23 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.04 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 4W 2D 5L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.57 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 26%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 7D 12L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.27 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Oleksandria won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Oleksandria 18% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 18%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Oleksandria and 36% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Oleksandria have failed to score in 46% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 18% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Oleksandria's recent games and 36% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar finished level at 2-2 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.04 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.62 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 0.87 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.57 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 45% | Draw 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Obolon'-Brovar 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.04 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.