🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Metalist 1925 Kharkiv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Oleksandria 1-4 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.61 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.68 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.19 / defence 0.93 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 60% | Draw 25% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 16%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 60%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights