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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oleksandria beat LNZ Cherkasy 4-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.98 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.08 / defence 1.22 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.87 / defence 0.76, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 28% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, LNZ Cherkasy 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights