Oleksandria 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Oleksandria are significantly better at CSC Nika than their overall form suggests.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.80 for Kryvbas KR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Oleksandria 3W, Kryvbas KR 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 40% versus Kryvbas KR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 50% | Kryvbas KR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.44 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.348 / defence 0.820 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.032 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 0.909. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Oleksandria games / 50 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 53% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 20%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Kryvbas KR 5.00. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 53% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Oleksandria 1.44 / Kryvbas KR 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.348 / def 0.820 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.032 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.170 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kryvbas KR xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 53% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 3W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.03x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 52/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.70
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.21
0.77
Kryvbas KR xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.77 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 21W 15D 14L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 27W 11D 12L from 50 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.84 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 5D 7L from 26 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.50 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 21W 15D 14L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.77 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 42%, Kryvbas KR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oleksandria) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oleksandria's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.44 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.77 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.35 / defence 0.82 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 53% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 20%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Kryvbas KR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.56 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.