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Dominant Kolos Kovalivka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Oleksandria 0-3 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.77 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.43 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.63 / defence 1.40 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 52%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.48 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights