Oleksandria 3-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karpaty make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Karpaty (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Oleksandria. A 1.20 PPG lead over Karpaty (2.60 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Karpaty goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Karpaty 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 42% | Karpaty 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.51 xG and Karpaty 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.205 / defence 0.855 | Karpaty attack 0.907 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.090. Data: 41 Oleksandria games / 12 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 20%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Karpaty 5.00. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 60% | Karpaty 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 1.51 / Karpaty 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.205 / def 0.855 | Karpaty attack 0.907 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Karpaty xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Karpaty kick off?
Oleksandria vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Oleksandria 3 - 0 Karpaty.
Where is Oleksandria vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Karpaty part of?
Oleksandria vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 52% chance of winning, Karpaty a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Karpaty?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Karpaty in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.21) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.91x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 41/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.64
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.35
0.85
Karpaty xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.85 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 10W 2D 0L from 12 games, a 2.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karpaty heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Karpaty in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 10W 2D 0L in their last 12 games (2.67 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Karpaty away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.60 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Karpaty in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Karpaty have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Karpaty — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
0
Draws
3
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Karpaty?
From 4 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Karpaty have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Karpaty 2-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 40%, Karpaty 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Oleksandria and 40% for Karpaty.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Karpaty in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Oleksandria's recent games and 40% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Karpaty tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Karpaty.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Karpaty 3-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.51 xG and Karpaty 0.85 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Karpaty attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 52% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 20%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 42%, Karpaty 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karpaty's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.