🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Oleksandria host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at KSK Nika, Oleksandria have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oleksandria at 0.90 PPG versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

In-Play Data

Oleksandria trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 40% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.33 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.125 / defence 1.049 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.851 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.320. Data: 39 Oleksandria games / 9 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights