Oleksandria 0-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KSK Nika, Oleksandria have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oleksandria at 0.90 PPG versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Oleksandria trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 40% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.33 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.125 / defence 1.049 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.851 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.320. Data: 39 Oleksandria games / 9 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Oleksandria 1.33 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.125 / def 1.049 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.851 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 24 October 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 39% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.12) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.45
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.18 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 0.90 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oleksandria's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.70 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.50 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defy the odds to beat Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Oleksandria 0-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.33 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 40%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.90 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.