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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-6 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.79 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.68 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 17% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 40%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights