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Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-4 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG and Polessya 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Polessya attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 28% | Polessya 47%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 38%, Polessya 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights