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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.69 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.35 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.74 / defence 1.34 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 19% | Draw 28% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 53%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 47%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights