Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host LNZ Cherkasy at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Obolon'-Brovar at 0.80 PPG versus LNZ Cherkasy's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Obolon'-Brovar, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 31% versus LNZ Cherkasy 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.704 / defence 1.074 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.848 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.249. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Obolon'-Brovar games / 26 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.704 / def 1.074 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.848 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.14
LNZ Cherkasy xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 23% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.70x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
23%
4.36
33%
3.03
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.88
1.14
LNZ Cherkasy xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.14 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 4W 10D 12L from 26 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.85 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 2W 5D 5L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 4W 5D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 10D 12L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.92 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
3
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 33%, LNZ Cherkasy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Obolon'-Brovar and 33% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 42% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.14 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 31%, LNZ Cherkasy 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.85 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.