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Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 51% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 19%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 39%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights