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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karpaty cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.38 xG and Karpaty 1.20 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 41% | Draw 26% | Karpaty 33%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 40%, Karpaty 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.14 PPG, Karpaty 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights