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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Obolon'-Brovar and Karpaty share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Obolon'-Brovar and Karpaty drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.97 xG and Karpaty 0.78 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.72 / defence 0.93 against Karpaty attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 28%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 40%, Karpaty 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights