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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Obolon'-Brovar and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar and Dynamo Kyiv finished level at 2-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.54 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.52 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 52%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 38%, Dynamo Kyiv 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights