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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zorya Luhansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Metalist 1925 Kharkiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-3 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.79 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.95 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 29% | Draw 34% | Zorya Luhansk 37%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 7%, Zorya Luhansk 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.71 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights