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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat SK Poltava 2-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.46 xG and SK Poltava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 0.90 against SK Poltava attack 0.86 / defence 1.74, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 49% | Draw 27% | SK Poltava 24%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 25%, SK Poltava 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

SK Poltava's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 2.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights