FC Kharkiv 0-3 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Oleksandria travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 December 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Livyi Bereh — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 0.60 (Oleksandria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 2 for Oleksandria and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 40% versus Oleksandria 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 42% | Oleksandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.982 / defence 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.721 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.192. Data: 46 FC Kharkiv games / 45 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Oleksandria 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 50% | Oleksandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.10 / Oleksandria 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.982 / def 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.721 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Oleksandria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 3 Oleksandria.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 39% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 2 | Oleksandria 2W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.98) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
39%
2.57
35%
2.86
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.97
0.86
Oleksandria xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.86 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 16D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (13W 18D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.02 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (3W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.13 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 13W 18D 14L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Oleksandria away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.29 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.90 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Oleksandria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 43%, Oleksandria 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Kharkiv) and 43% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oleksandria in 38%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 43% of games; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 52% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 43% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Kharkiv 0-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Oleksandria outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Oleksandria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.02 PPG, Oleksandria 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.